Edward Snowden: what would happen if he went home – pardon or prison?

If Edward Snowden could leave Russia, he would. Although he is grateful for the sanctuary the country has offered him, the NSA whistleblower responsible for one of the biggest leaks in intelligence history would much rather be in western Europe or, better still, back in the US.

Speculation that a deal with the US justice department might be in the offing was prompted by a comment by his Russian lawyer, Anatoly Kucherena, in Moscow on Monday. Kucherena said: “I won’t keep it secret that he ... wants to return back home. And we are doing everything possible now to solve this issue. There is a group of US lawyers, there is also a group of German lawyers and I’m dealing with it on the Russian side.”

US justice department officials added to the speculation, saying that it would welcome his return, but he would have to face criminal charges.

Both statements are true. Snowden’s lawyers would like to help negotiate his return to the US, and the US would like to see him return to face criminal charges. What would be a mistake is to interpret this as a hint that a deal is in the making behind the scenes. There were months of discussion between the justice department and Snowden’s lawyers after publication of the first leaks in June 2013, but these have long since gone cold.

Snowden faces three charges under the Espionage Act. That would mean he would be tried in front of a judge, without a jury, and it would almost certainly mean he would end up in jail. The three charges alone could see him sent to jail for 30 years, but these might only be initial charges and he would be looking at a much longer sentence.

If he was offered the prospect of a jury trial, he would be likely to take it, but that is not on the table.

His best hope at present is to find a west European country to grant him asylum. He has reportedly applied to 21 European countries, all of which have turned him down. None are prepared to fall out with the US by offering him a safe haven.

Public support for him continues to grow in Europe, where he has become the figurehead for the privacy movement. He keeps popping up, an irritant to the US government. On Thursday, he will join a panel discussion in Geneva by Skype, organised by the International Film Festival and Forum on Human Rights.

Could public pressure eventually shift a European government? It seems a remote possibility, but not as remote as a US deal.

There are lots of optimistic theories, the favourite being a pardon by Barack Obama when he stands down in January 2017. Nothing Obama has said suggests such a possibility.

The realistic scenario is that he is going to be in exile in Russia for a long time to come.