Supported by
Political Calculus
A Fumble and Some Punts: Attention Turns to Scott Walker the Campaigner
Perhaps the most important question in the Republican presidential primary is whether Scott Walker, the Wisconsin governor, is a capable presidential candidate.
On paper, he is nearly perfect, a conservative hero who fought organized labor and won, who triumphed over a labor-led recall effort and wound up winning a blue state three times in four years. He is the rare candidate who has earned the affection of the base without alienating the establishment. His well-received speech in Iowa last month wasn’t much more than a recitation of his résumé as governor, and yet he has shot to the top of Republican primary polling.
But to win the nomination, Mr. Walker will need to prove as capable on the campaign trail as he is on paper. So far, Mr. Walker hasn’t helped reduce concerns about his preparedness.
He “punted” on a question about evolution in London; he did not distance himself from Rudy Giuliani, the former New York City mayor, after Mr. Giuliani questioned whether President Obama loved America; he said he didn’t know whether Mr. Obama was a Christian; and on Thursday, at a conservative conference, Mr. Walker argued that his experience facing down union protesters in Madison prepared him to defeat the Islamic State, the terrorist group. He later acknowledged, “There’s no comparison between the two.”
My review of Mr. Walker’s television advertisements; debates; newspaper and television interviews; and speeches shows that he can be a candidate who deftly deflects and reframes tough questions. On that basis, it seems right to assume that Mr. Walker is less prone to an implosion than past Republicans who have surged in the polls, like Rick Perry, the former Texas governor. As I’ve mulled his chances over the last few years, my main question has been whether Mr. Walker would break out, not whether he could sustain momentum.
I asked Charles Franklin, a professor at Marquette University Law School in Wisconsin and director of the Marquette Law School poll, what his experience watching Mr. Walker over the last four years suggested about his mettle as a presidential candidate. He said Mr. Walker was “capable” and “very tactical,” someone who “thrives with a Democratic opponent and can do as well with Republicans.” His electoral record is certainly consistent with that view.
Nonetheless, most Republican elites are less familiar with Mr. Walker than they are with Jeb Bush or the candidates from the Senate or near New York City who have captured more media attention over the last few years. For most people, Mr. Walker’s audition is starting now, and, whether conservatives think it’s fair or not, his performance has raised doubts.
If he intends to win the nomination, he’ll have to dispel these questions — not just in the battle for the resources of Republican donors, but also to be taken seriously by the many voters who take their cues from news media coverage.
My sense is that Mr. Walker can do it. It’s a long campaign. But until he dispels these concerns, it will be hard to argue that he’s a clear favorite for the nomination, as some have argued — even if he would be very difficult to defeat if he proved to be as strong on the campaign trail as he was on paper.
The Upshot provides news, analysis and graphics about politics, policy and everyday life. Follow us on Facebook and Twitter. Sign up for our weekly newsletter.
From The Upshot: What the Data Says
Analysis that explains politics, policy and everyday life.
Pandemic School Closures: A variety of data about children’s academic outcomes and about the spread of Covid-19 has accumulated since the start of the pandemic. Here is what we learned from it.
Affirmative Action: The Supreme Court effectively ended race-based preferences in admissions. But will selective schools still be able to achieve diverse student bodies? Here’s how they might try.
Parenting: Surveys of young adults show that most parents are highly involved in their grown children’s lives. Yet in many ways, their relationships seem healthy and fulfilling.
N.Y.C. Neighborhoods: We asked New Yorkers to map their neighborhoods and to tell us what they call them. The result, while imperfect, is an extremely detailed map of the city.
Dialect Quiz: What does the way you speak say about where you’re from? Answer these questions to find out.
Advertisement