AFL season 2016: What the ladder would look like, if teams had kicked straighter for goal

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This was published 7 years ago

AFL season 2016: What the ladder would look like, if teams had kicked straighter for goal

By Emma Quayle
Updated

In this alternative universe, Port Adelaide sit safely inside the top eight.

In this other world Hawthorn would still be scrambling for September, Adelaide would be holding top spot and North Melbourne would have slipped outside the eight.

Costly misses: Essendon spearhead Joe Daniher.

Costly misses: Essendon spearhead Joe Daniher.Credit: Getty Images

And in this land of missed opportunity, Essendon wouldn't be playing Brisbane on Sunday with the aim of avoiding the club's first wooden spoon since 1933.

Instead, the Bombers would be six points clear of the Lions and in 16th spot, searching for their fourth win rather than their second.

The "if only they could kick straight" ladder doesn't vary enormously from the actual one. But what it does make clear is that missing more shots than you make can really, really hurt, whether you're a good team or one trying to get better.

This ladder gives teams four points when they have finished a match with more shots for goal than their opposition, and two points when they've ended up on the same number.

Rushed behinds were subtracted from each team's tally before the order was rejigged, and clubs on the same number of points are listed alphabetically.

The "shots" tally, compiled by Champion Data, includes missed shots, which might have fallen short or been put out on the full.

The Power have matched or bettered the shots taken by their opposition – but ended up on the loser's list – four times so far this season.

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That's more than any other team, though the figure is a little misleading: the Power matched West Coast and Adelaide for scoring shots, beat the Bulldogs by three and notched just one more than Fremantle.

Four September-bound teams are next on the list, but squeezed in between the Dogs, Swans and Cats are the Bombers, who have lost three games this year they could have won. Two, they probably should have.

That tally includes three of their last four matches: one against the Giants, where they had nine more shots in a 27-point loss, and another against St Kilda. They had seven more shots that day, but were beaten by 11 points.

The third was on the weekend against Richmond, when Essendon racked up 36 shots to the Tigers' 27, kicking 3.6 to 5.1 in the last quarter and losing by 19 points.

Some shots are harder than others, of course. They can be taken from tough angles, from awkward spots, under varying levels of pressure. Some teams can make the easy things look very hard.

And then there is the flipside: the ease with which goals are conceded, meaning you've got to make even more of your own opportunities to win.

"They were a bit cleaner. We fought hard in close but if we coughed it up, they tended to get out and run hard forward," explained Essendon coach John Worsfold after the Tigers game.

"I think it created easier scoring opportunities for them. They kicked more accurately because they got it inside 50 so quickly, out of breaking out of those congested situations. A lot of the work when we did win out of congested situations – we had to go wider or scramble it forward.

"That's one area. They were a bit cleaner in tight and obviously [Ben Griffiths] took some great opportunities, some contested marks.

"Ours – we just missed them. There's maybe four where you would like to say that with those opportunities, you would have marked those footies close to goal.

"We didn't hold onto them. Again, that was an area just off, and that makes a difference of a few goals."

Where red and black wins in those matches would have Brisbane already stuck in last spot, the other teams to have blown some chances are trying to position themselves as best they can at the better end of the ladder.

The Western Bulldogs move from third spot on the real ladder to fourth on this alternate order because the Swans and Geelong jump up into second and third.

Like Essendon, the Dogs have dropped three games this year despite matching or out-shooting the opposition. That said, just one was a real waste: the Bulldogs had five more shots than Hawthorn back in round three, but fell by three points in the last few moments of the match.

Sydney have more to shake their head over. The Swans have lost just two games this year when they have kicked more often for goal, against two very good teams. But they were games they were in, until the very end, and losses that have helped tip them out of the top four.

One was three weeks ago, when they had six more shots than the Bulldogs yet lost by less than a goal. The other was last Friday night, which brings us to Hawthorn.

Hawthorn hang in there, find ways, win games when it feels like the other team has done everything imaginable to finish in front of them.

The Hawks take their chances and are the equal best team with West Coast when it comes to goal accuracy: they're on 55.1 per cent, ahead of GWS on 54.5, Melbourne on 54.6 and Port Adelaide on 53.4.

It should come as no surprise that Essendon (42 per cent), Carlton (46.5), the Lions (47.1) hold up the other end, though the Dogs sit equal fourth from the bottom with Fremantle (48.3).

The Hawks are one of five teams who haven't blown at least one game this year having taken less shots for goal: Gold Coast, Melbourne, West Coast and St Kilda are the others.

They kicked the last goal against the Bulldogs, despite having five fewer shots. They did the same thing against the Swans last Friday. They had seven fewer shots than North four weeks ago, and the beat them too.

More than any other team, they've made sure the clubs that would, could and possibly should have beaten them this year have gone home with at least one large regret.


If only they'd kicked straight

(Alternate AFL ladder: team and points)

Adelaide 50
Geelong 48
Sydney 48
Western Bulldogs 46
GWS 44
Port Adelaide 44
Hawthorn 40
West Coast 40
North Melbourne 36
Richmond 30
St Kilda 26
Collingwood 24
Melbourne 24
Carlton 22
Gold Coast 20
Essendon 14
Fremantle 12
Brisbane Lions 8

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