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WMUR poll: Donald Trump surges to top of GOP primary field in NH

Outspoken business exec leads Jeb Bush, 24 percent to 12 percent

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WMUR poll: Donald Trump surges to top of GOP primary field in NH
Outspoken business exec leads Jeb Bush, 24 percent to 12 percent
For the first time in the 2016 Republican presidential primary campaign, there is a clear Granite State frontrunner. Business executive Donald Trump’s strong standing in national polls is also the case in first-primary state New Hampshire.Click to view News 9's coverage.The latest WMUR Granite State Poll, released Monday, says Trump is the top choice of 24 percent of likely GOP primary voters, doubling the support of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who is backed by 12 percent. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, at 11 percent, is the only other candidate in double digits.View the poll results here (.pdf).Not only has Trump surged to the head of the pack in New Hampshire, but also for the first time, he is now viewed favorably by more likely GOP primary voters than unfavorably. And, he is named as the candidate best able to handle key issues facing the nation, from the economy to terrorism, and from immigration to health care policy.Yet likely voters are unsure if Trump will actually win the primary in February.The poll comes after Trump’s provocative comments about immigration and his criticism last month of two-time New Hampshire Republican primary winner U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona. It also come just an hour before the Voters First Forum at Saint Anselm College, and three days before the first Republican debate, scheduled for Thursday in Cleveland.The poll sets up Trump, Bush and Walker as New Hampshire’s top tier with six months remaining until the voting, which is likely to be held on Feb. 9, 2016.The remainder of the pack is led by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky at 7 percent each; followed by Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 6 percent; and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and Dr. Ben Carson at 5 percent each.U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida is at 3 percent, while former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and former Texas Gov. Rick Perry are each supported by 2 percent. Drawing 1 percent each are former business executive Carly Fiorina, U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.Getting less than 1 percent are former New York Gov. George Pataki and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore, as well as former Maryland Gov. Bob Ehrlich, who is not an announced candidate.The University of New Hampshire Survey Center conducted the poll July 22-30, surveying 309 likely Republican primary voters. That includes 152 self-identified Republicans and 129 self-identified independents. According to the survey center, 28 respondents were unregistered, did not remember what they are registered as or refused to answer the question.For full poll results, click here.Trump’s move to the top of the New Hampshire primary field has coincided with an improvement in how he is viewed by likely voters. Currently, 51 percent of those polled view him favorably and 40 percent unfavorably. In the WMUR Granite State poll in June, 38 percent viewed him favorably and 48 percent unfavorably.In February, Trump was viewed favorably by only 19 percent of likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters and unfavorably by 69 percent.He is now viewed as the second “most likeable” Republican candidate, trailing Bush 13 percent to 12 percent.However, Trump also leads the field as the candidate voters would be least likely to support. Currently, 29 percent named Trump as the candidate they “would not vote for under any circumstances,” with Bush finishing second at 16 percent.Trump also is tied with Christie as the candidate viewed as the least honest, at 17 percent each.And, despite being the frontrunner, Trump trails Bush 26 percent to 25 percent, for a virtual tie, when likely voters are asked who they think will win the New Hampshire primary.Yet Trump has a big lead when likely voters are asked to name the strongest leader in the GOP field, out-polling Walker 30 percent to 11 percent. He is named by 19 percent as the Republican who “best represents the values of Republicans like yourself,” while Bush is named by 11 percent.Trump has a huge lead when likely voters are asked to name the candidate who can best handle the economy, leading Bush 43 percent to 9 percent. He is named as the top candidate to handle terrorism, 21 percent to 13 percent over Bush.Trump is viewed by 38 percent of likely voters as the best equipped to handle illegal immigration, followed by Cruz at 11 percent, and he is named as the top candidate to handle health care policy, 15 percent to 11 percent over Bush.Bush is named by 17 percent as the candidate with the “right experience” to be president, followed closely by Trump at 15 percent.Cruz is named as the most conservative candidate by 16 percent, trailed by Huckabee at 12 percent and Paul at 9 percent.Walker has the strongest favorability rating in the field, with 52 percent viewing him favorably and 14 percent unfavorably. Carson follows with 40 percent viewing him favorably and 14 percent unfavorably. Cruz is third, with 46 percent viewing him favorably and 22 percent unfavorably.While 48 percent of likely primary voters say they are extremely interested in the election, and 38 percent are “very interested,” they are far from having made up their minds.The poll showed that only 11 percent said they have “definitely decided” who they will support, while 22 percent are leaning toward a candidate and 66 percent are still in the process of making a final decision.As in past polls, the top issue on the minds of likely voters is jobs or the economy, named by 25 percent of those polled.Foreign policy or national security is the second most frequently named issue, by 22 percent, followed by immigration at 18 percent, health care at 7 percent, the budget or national debt at 6 percent, social issues at 4 percent and education at 1 percent.

For the first time in the 2016 Republican presidential primary campaign, there is a clear Granite State frontrunner. Business executive Donald Trump’s strong standing in national polls is also the case in first-primary state New Hampshire.

Click to view News 9's coverage.

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The latest WMUR Granite State Poll, released Monday, says Trump is the top choice of 24 percent of likely GOP primary voters, doubling the support of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who is backed by 12 percent. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, at 11 percent, is the only other candidate in double digits.

View the poll results here (.pdf).

Not only has Trump surged to the head of the pack in New Hampshire, but also for the first time, he is now viewed favorably by more likely GOP primary voters than unfavorably. And, he is named as the candidate best able to handle key issues facing the nation, from the economy to terrorism, and from immigration to health care policy.

Yet likely voters are unsure if Trump will actually win the primary in February.

The poll comes after Trump’s provocative comments about immigration and his criticism last month of two-time New Hampshire Republican primary winner U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona. It also come just an hour before the Voters First Forum at Saint Anselm College, and three days before the first Republican debate, scheduled for Thursday in Cleveland.

The poll sets up Trump, Bush and Walker as New Hampshire’s top tier with six months remaining until the voting, which is likely to be held on Feb. 9, 2016.

The remainder of the pack is led by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky at 7 percent each; followed by Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 6 percent; and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and Dr. Ben Carson at 5 percent each.

U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida is at 3 percent, while former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and former Texas Gov. Rick Perry are each supported by 2 percent. Drawing 1 percent each are former business executive Carly Fiorina, U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.

Getting less than 1 percent are former New York Gov. George Pataki and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore, as well as former Maryland Gov. Bob Ehrlich, who is not an announced candidate.

The University of New Hampshire Survey Center conducted the poll July 22-30, surveying 309 likely Republican primary voters. That includes 152 self-identified Republicans and 129 self-identified independents. According to the survey center, 28 respondents were unregistered, did not remember what they are registered as or refused to answer the question.

For full poll results, click here.

Trump’s move to the top of the New Hampshire primary field has coincided with an improvement in how he is viewed by likely voters. Currently, 51 percent of those polled view him favorably and 40 percent unfavorably. In the WMUR Granite State poll in June, 38 percent viewed him favorably and 48 percent unfavorably.

In February, Trump was viewed favorably by only 19 percent of likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters and unfavorably by 69 percent.

He is now viewed as the second “most likeable” Republican candidate, trailing Bush 13 percent to 12 percent.

However, Trump also leads the field as the candidate voters would be least likely to support. Currently, 29 percent named Trump as the candidate they “would not vote for under any circumstances,” with Bush finishing second at 16 percent.

Trump also is tied with Christie as the candidate viewed as the least honest, at 17 percent each.

And, despite being the frontrunner, Trump trails Bush 26 percent to 25 percent, for a virtual tie, when likely voters are asked who they think will win the New Hampshire primary.

Yet Trump has a big lead when likely voters are asked to name the strongest leader in the GOP field, out-polling Walker 30 percent to 11 percent. He is named by 19 percent as the Republican who “best represents the values of Republicans like yourself,” while Bush is named by 11 percent.

Trump has a huge lead when likely voters are asked to name the candidate who can best handle the economy, leading Bush 43 percent to 9 percent. He is named as the top candidate to handle terrorism, 21 percent to 13 percent over Bush.

Trump is viewed by 38 percent of likely voters as the best equipped to handle illegal immigration, followed by Cruz at 11 percent, and he is named as the top candidate to handle health care policy, 15 percent to 11 percent over Bush.

Bush is named by 17 percent as the candidate with the “right experience” to be president, followed closely by Trump at 15 percent.

Cruz is named as the most conservative candidate by 16 percent, trailed by Huckabee at 12 percent and Paul at 9 percent.

Walker has the strongest favorability rating in the field, with 52 percent viewing him favorably and 14 percent unfavorably. Carson follows with 40 percent viewing him favorably and 14 percent unfavorably. Cruz is third, with 46 percent viewing him favorably and 22 percent unfavorably.

While 48 percent of likely primary voters say they are extremely interested in the election, and 38 percent are “very interested,” they are far from having made up their minds.

The poll showed that only 11 percent said they have “definitely decided” who they will support, while 22 percent are leaning toward a candidate and 66 percent are still in the process of making a final decision.

As in past polls, the top issue on the minds of likely voters is jobs or the economy, named by 25 percent of those polled.

Foreign policy or national security is the second most frequently named issue, by 22 percent, followed by immigration at 18 percent, health care at 7 percent, the budget or national debt at 6 percent, social issues at 4 percent and education at 1 percent.