Britain's war in Afghanistan: was it worth it?

David Cameron announced on Wednesday that a service of commemoration would take place at St Paul’s Cathedral on March 13 to mark the end of combat operations in Afghanistan. After thirteen years of war, is Afghanistan a better place and has British security improved? Most British people think not.

What the public thinks

In a telephone poll conducted by Ipsos MORI in mid January for the War Studies department at King’s College London, some 500 adults were asked if they thought that Britain’s military campaign was effective in bringing security and stability to Afghanistan. Only 42 per cent thought it was effective whereas 49 per cent thought it was not.

When asked if Britain’s military campaign had been effective in preventing Afghanistan being used as a base for terrorists to attack British interests, the responses are similar – 41 per cent felt it had against 49 per cent believing it had not.

When reminded of the cost of Britain’s war in Afghanistan in blood and money – the loss of 453 service personnel and around 27 billion pounds spent – the public take an even more jaundiced view. In a second poll sample of 513 adults given these facts, only 36 per cent thought Britain’s military campaign had improved Afghan security and stability, with 58 per cent judging that it had not.

Similarly, only 39 per cent thought it had stopped terrorists from launching attacks from Afghan soil, while 55 per cent believed it had made little to no difference.

What the experts think

Few experts think that Afghanistan is stable much less secure. The national unity government of Afghanistan of Ashraf Ghani, the president, and Abdullah Abdullah, the chief executive officer, is unified in name only. Mr Ghani offers the prospect of real reform but he and Abdullah Abdullah fought a bitterly contested presidential election in 2014.

Theirs is an unhappy political marriage. After four months of wrangling they unveiled a cabinet only to have it picked apart by an Afghan parliament that refused to accept several proposed ministers.

With western help, Afghanistan has built up a huge army and national police force, which combined now number some 345,000. However, the chances of these forces securing the country are slim.

This is especially true in the south and east, where the withdrawal of western forces has given a new wind to the Taliban insurgency. The summer fighting season last year was especially tough, with the Afghan security forces barely holding on to northern Helmand. The Taliban have made gains in most rural areas across the south and east of Afghanistan.

David Cameron is shown a map of the area by Major Jim Skelton during a visit to Camp Bastion (GETTY IMAGES)

The situation on the economic front is little better. The country is still chronically dependent on western aid. The Afghan national security forces cost $4.5 billion (£3 billion) each year, all paid for by Nato. Since 2001, the one bright spot in another otherwise bleak picture has been growth in the Afghan economy, which has grown on average 9 per cent per year. Not any more. Just today the BBC reports that the economy is flat-lining with zero per cent growth predicted for 2015.

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The impact on British security remains unclear. The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that large numbers of Islamic terrorists from al-Qaeda and Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant have been driven out of Pakistan’s tribal areas and into neighbouring Afghanistan by the Pakistan army. On the other hand, senior Taliban figures told a King’s research team that were the Taliban to return to power, they would stop Islamic terrorists launching attacks from Afghan soil. This is one lesson they learned very clearly from 2001.

Official inquiry: does Britain need one?

The Ministry of Defence may take some comfort from this poll. Notwithstanding what the experts think, over 40 per cent of the public believe the official line that the mission was accomplished in Afghanistan. Predictably, it is only when they are reminded of the cost and sacrifice of this long war that the public take an altogether more negative view.

The government will take less comfort from the overall public conclusion. When asked if on balance the war was worthwhile, only one third thought that it was; 39 per cent answered that it was not, regardless of whether or not they were reminded before of the war’s cost.

This begs the question, should there be an official inquiry into the Afghanistan war? Norway thinks so. Last November, an official commission of independent experts was appointed by Royal decree to evaluate and draw lessons from Norway’s involvement in Afghanistan.

Britain’s role in the war was far larger yet the government is not minded to follow Norway’s lead. Of course one should not rush into such an enterprise. The Chilcot inquiry demonstrates the immense effort that may be required, and that such inquiries invariably take far longer and cost far more than anticipated at the outset. None the less, it is remarkable how little public debate there has been on the matter.

Theo Farrell is Professor of War in the Modern World and Head of the Department of War Studies at King’s College London.

This analysis was made possible by the King's College London and Ipsos MORI Research Partnership

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