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Report That The Nintendo NX Launches July 2016 Seems Unlikely

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This article is more than 8 years old.

A new rumor is being passed around the gaming sphere from DigiTimes which claims that Nintendo is ramping up production for the NX, which they describe as its “next-generation games console.” Reportedly, Nintendo is talking to its supply chain partners Foxconn Electronics about starting up production, with Pegatron Technology trying to grab a piece of the pie. Both declined comment.

The unnamed DigiTimes source goes on to say that production will begin in just a few months in October, and that as a result Nintendo is shooting for a July 2016 launch, just a year from now. They’re supposedly looking to ship 20 million units in the first year of production.

Almost none of this seems terribly likely.

Nintendo has promised that it will share no hard news about the NX until 2016 (they did not say they were releasing the console in 2016 like the article says). As such, launching the system presumably a mere six months after it’s first revealed seems like an insanely fast schedule not typical of the console release process, which will normally see a new system debut in the fall ahead of the holiday season. It's also highly unusual for a console to have an effectively four year shelf life, as the 2012-2016 Wii U gravestone would read if it does indeed come out next year.

While the Wii U is struggling and Nintendo probably does want to replace it with something new and exciting as soon as possible, rushing the NX out six months (or less) after its official reveal would be risky. Fans are already wary about what the NX will turn out to be, and I think they’d rather Nintendo take their time to build a console that’s more worthwhile from a hardware perspective than the Wii U or Wii. (A curious aspect of a July premiere date would mean that the new Wii U Legend of Zelda game would almost certainly be released on NX as well).

This insanely fast schedule does not seem like Nintendo’s style, even if they are scrambling to replace the Wii U (though Nintendo has rarely scrambled to do anything). And another aspect of this story that makes the entire thing seem sketchy is that the source says Nintendo plans to ship 20 million NX units in year one. Yes, they had similarly grandiose launch plans for the Wii U which they had to dramatically revise, but I have to believe that they’ve learned not to make such lofty predictions. While the Wii U hasn’t even officially cracked 10 million sales in its entire lifespan, it seems outright idiotic that Nintendo would forecast double that for the first year of the NX.

The problem with Nintendo hiding NX from the public eye until 2016 is that we’re going to have half a year of rumor and speculation with stories like this. In the absence of news, news will be created, some possibly actual leaks, most probably false information. This report seems like it’s almost certainly in the latter camp.

In my view, it's incredibly unlikely that Nintendo debuts the NX before fall 2016, and it seems like 2017 would be an even better fit. It’s unclear just how long Nintendo has been working on the NX, but production on a next-generation console usually picks up shortly after the debut of the current-gen console. Meaning, Nintendo may have been working on the NX since 2012. Perhaps that means it could be out sooner than we imagine, but six months or less from its debut to being on store shelves is unusual for a big game, much less an entirely new console.

All Nintendo fans are praying that the NX will turn out to at least be on par with the power of current-gen systems, with many hoping that it could actually surpass them. That seems unlikely however, as Nintendo hasn’t demonstrated the desire nor the capability to leapfrog its competition from a horsepower perspective for several generations now. Being on-par with current gen systems would be helpful for a few years, as 2016/2017 is still smack in the middle of the PS4/Xbox One console generation, as both debuted in 2013. It would bring Nintendo up to an even playing field for at least a few years, until the PS5/Xbox Two start looming on the horizon (provided the doomsayers are wrong and this isn't the last console generation).

Of course, this is assuming the NX will be designed in a way to appeal to third party developers, which is a very, very big “if” at this point. Nintendo’s relationship with most mainstream third party publishers and developers have deteriorated to the point of non-existence between the Wii and Wii U. Nintendo consoles are reportedly tough to develop for from an architecture perspective, but add in a “must have” extraneous feature like motion control or the gamepad, and publishers haven’t even bothered. Many tried with the Wii because it was such a sales behemoth, but now that the Wii U is anything but that, nearly all major multiplatform franchises have fled.

Though Nintendo is saying almost nothing about the NX, they have indicated that yet again they will be developing a “new way to play,” implying that the new system will indeed have a motion control/gamepad type extra feature, though the exact nature of it is unclear. That’s something I think few fans care to see, and like I’ve suggested in the past, many would love a simple Nintendo console with a normal controller that plays both Nintendo’s first party roster and all the multiplatform hits that the Xbox One and PS4 take for granted. Again, this is a lofty dream given Nintendo’s behavior over the last decade or more.

These recent reports would suggest a very rushed NX promotional window, and after the marketing failures of the Wii U, that seems like a poor idea. And if Nintendo expects to move 20 million units the first year after losing so much trust with the Wii U, they may be in for yet another nasty surprise when it comes to actual hardware sales numbers.

I've reached out to Nintendo for comment.

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