UFC 190: Early Predictions for Rousey vs. Correia Main Event

UFC 190 is a card littered with some of Brazil's most popular fighters, but it's Ronda Rousey who will serve as the event's biggest and most spectacular attraction. The women's bantamweight champion will put her title on the line against undefeated Bethe Correia in the challenger's home country in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. 

Rousey is one of, if not, the biggest stars in the organization. A quick glance at her IMDB page sums up her presence in the mainstream, including movies, commercials and the talk show circuits. 

It's a good thing for Rousey's brand that she gets plenty of screen time away from the Octagon because she doesn't spend much time in it. Her last three fights have lasted all of 96 seconds. By all definitions, that's as dominant a three-fight stretch as you'll see in the sport. 

Tasked with putting an end to that domination is Correia. The 32-year-old is 9-0, which makes for great promotional fodder for the UFC, but her undefeated streak is a lot less impressive than Rousey's. Her three wins in the UFC have come against Julie Kedzie, Jessamyn Duke and Shayna Baszler. 

Stepping up from those three to Rousey would be roughly the equivalent of going from third grade to a PhD. program at Yale. MMA Infographics tweeted out the breakdown of the two fighter's resumes:

The narrative for this fight stems from Correia's victories over Duke and Baszler—both of whom are part of the "Four Horsewomen" and friends with Rousey. However, beating Rousey's friends is a whole lot easier than beating Rousey herself. 

Here's a look at the fight, along with an early prediction as fight week gets underway. 

When: Saturday, August 1

Start Time: Fight Pass prelims at 7 p.m. ET (subscription required); Fox Sports 1 prelims at 8 p.m. ET; main card pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET

Where: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Live Stream: UFC.tv

Fight Preview

The UFC hype machine will likely try to sell this as a close matchup between undefeated fighters. But that's a little disingenuous. Correia's three UFC opponents are a combined 1-7. Rousey has beaten six of the 10 fighters that currently make up the Top 10 in the UFC's rankings. 

Correia isn't going to let a lack of credentials affect her confidence, though. She enters the bout looking to expose holes in Rousey's game that haven't really been shown in her first 11 fights.

“Everybody has holes in their game, and Ronda does, too,” Correia said, per Kevin Iole of Yahoo. “You might not know it because the media doesn’t talk about it. But she has holes in her game, too.”

One would assume these holes have to be in Rousey's striking game. Since she's won nine of her 11 fights by submission, it's a facet of her game that hasn't been tested very often. After all, Miesha Tate is the only one to even see a second round with the champion. 

However, Rousey seems willing to let Correia survive a little longer than most. "This fight has gone pretty personal for me and when I finish fights quickly, that's really me at my most merciful," Rousey said in an interview with Sports Illustrated via Jack de Menezes of The Independent. "My dad would call it a ‘come to Jesus meeting.’ I’m going all the way down to Brazil to a ‘come to Jesus meeting’ with this chick. No, I’m not gonna [sic] end it quickly. But not because I can’t end it quickly, because I choose to."

Should Rousey employ a more long-term approach to this fight, here's how the two match up statistically, per FightMetric:

Correia's 6.07 strikes landed per minute is indicative of the type of pressure she puts on opponents. She's clearly a pressure fighter who will attempt to bully Rousey. While that's been a recipe for success for the Brazilian to this point, employing that strategy against the champion will be difficult.

With just two finishes in her nine fights, Correia doesn't have the power that's going to deter Rousey from closing the distance and getting the clinch. Once she's in the clinch, the 8.19 takedowns per 15 minutes start to come into play. 

If Correia wants any chance at pulling off the upset, she's going to need to employ a striking-heavy game plan that focuses on movement around and away from the champion. 

Prediction

As the predictions come in throughout fight week, you'll be hard-pressed to find anyone picking Correia in this one. At the time of this writing, she was a 15-2 underdog, according to Odds Shark. That's for good reason. 

In addition to her lack of credible victories, she's a terrible style matchup for the champion. She's the type of fighter whose most popular method of victory has been grinding opponents down to a decision going against one of the best finishers in the history of the sport. 

The fight is most likely to go in one of two directions. Bryan Henderson of Combat Press broke them down:

Correia’s normal grinding game is a big invitation for a quick judo-throw takedown and armbar finish. And if the Brazilian tries to play it safe and stand with Rousey, the champ is going to close the distance and find a way to get the throw and submission. Either way, it’s doubtful that anything good can come of this for the challenger. Given Correia’s history of non-finishes, she’s going to need a full 25 minutes to pull off the win. That’s not going to happen. Correia might last longer than Zingano and Davis, but she’ll be lucky to see the second round, let alone anything more.

Either path leads to destruction for the challenger. The question is when and how Rousey will finish the fight. 

This time, she's talked about playing with her food before ultimately devouring it. The champ seems set on doing some extra damage before getting her hand raised. However, Rousey's lore has been built around finishing fighters quicker than anyone in the sport. 

With the opportunity to lock in yet another quick submission off a clinch takedown, this one will be over within the first two-and-a-half minutes. 

Prediction: Rousey by first-round submission