Manny Pacquiao's Chances of Beating Floyd Mayweather Are Better Than Ever

When Manny Pacquiao steps into the ring to finally face eternal rival Floyd Mayweather on Saturday at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, he'll do so as the underdog.

Odds Shark has backed the undefeated pound-for-pound king to win by decision ever since the fight was first announced, and their opinion hasn't changed. Sugar Ray Leonard believes the same, via The Wall Street Journal, as do a host of other pundits and former greats:

Yet when the two iconic fighters finally touch gloves, Pacquiao's chances of actually beating Mayweather will be better than ever before.

Six years ago, Pac-Man was a terror in the ring, a terrifying combination of hand speed, relentless energy and raw power. The shot that took out Ricky Hatton in their 2009 bout was the kind of vicious hit fighters feared every time they stepped into the ring with Pacquiao:

In recent years, that raw power has all but vanished from his repertoire. Pacquiao hasn't won by stoppage in a long time, and he hasn't looked like the dominant force we've come to love since his knockout loss against Juan Manuel Marquez.

The Filipino slugger is still an incredible boxer, showing his hand speed and stamina in dominant wins over Timothy Bradley and Chris Algieri. But time has taken its toll on Pacquiao, and the knockout wizard of old seems gone forever.

By contrast, Mayweather is still winning fights the same way he always has. He's two years older than Pacquiao but has fought less in his career, and due to his defensive boxing style, his body has taken far less punishment.

Mayweather's shoulder roll technique and his ability to duck in and out of range to land single shots are incredible. He's the best defensive fighter in the world, and one of the best counterpunchers the sport has ever seen.

Those traits were never more obvious than when he beat Oscar De La Hoya in 2007, the fight that announced his arrival as the sport's top star. De La Hoya threw far more punches in that bout, but Mayweather's ability to avoid them and counter in timely fashion was uncanny:

Mayweather still fights very much the same way, but like Pacquiao, he's no longer the unbeatable machine he was in his prime. And the numbers back that up, as explained by CompuBox's Bob Canobbio:

Money used to be almost impossible to hit, and that has certainly changed. He still does a good job of weaving in and out of range to use his jab, and his head movement is still superb. But close to the ropes, he's become a far more static target than he was five years ago.

Mayweather has always struggled against fast left-handed fighters, with fans likely remembering his bout against Zab Judah as a prime example. After watching that fight, people believed Pacquiao had a real chance of knocking Mayweather out at the time, and for good reason:

But Mayweather has always been one of the smartest fighters in the business, someone who adapts and learns from every punch he takes, both during fights and between them. He saw his struggles against Judah, and he likely would have made sure he wouldn't face similar struggles in a hypothetical fight with Pacquiao.

More than half a decade later, Pacquiao has lost some of that devastating power, but he still has some of the quickest hands in boxing and the stamina to fight 12 rounds at lightning pace.

There's no need for him to look for that knockout shot he would have faced back in 2009. If he's smart, he knows the chances of beating Mayweather that way are slim. This isn't the same Mayweather of yore. He still throws few punches every round, and he's never faced a volume puncher with the hand speed of Pacquiao.

Money recently told ESPN.co.uk Pacquiao is “worried,” but he shouldn't be:

Pac-Man knows he has the speed to make the most of his combinations and the stamina to keep up his insane rate of punching for 12 rounds. He knows Mayweather can be hit and won't throw nearly as many punches as Pacquiao will. And most of all, he knows that if he keeps up his combinations, he has a chance to win on the cards.

That's more than he had three years ago or five years ago, when Mayweather was simply untouchable and would have frustrated him beyond belief.

Sure, Mayweather will be the favourite Saturday, and he should be. He's the undefeated pound-for-pound king for a reason. But as long as Pacquiao doesn't go chasing that knockout punch and continues to fight with his brain, he'll have a great chance against an opponent who has quietly shown just as many signs of aging as he has.

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