Mayweather vs. Pacquiao: Full Odds and Storylines After Media Workouts

Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao are inching closer to the biggest boxing showdown in years, possibly ever, on May 2. The two megastars could not have more diverse and distinct personalities, which has been proved in the lead-up to their fight. 

This week provided an in-person glimpse at where Mayweather and Pacquiao are at in their training, as the two took part in separate media workouts. If there was ever any doubt how each fighter views himself, those were quieted in grand style. 

Now, whether anyone thinks a public workout session is important or not, ESPN's Dan Rafael said on SportsCenter that Mayweather's actions showing up more than two hours late on Tuesday put the people who organize the time in an awkward and uncomfortable position. 

Mayweather is under no obligation to care about those people, but he knows what's going on and should be more respectful of people's time since their work in the media helps pump up his fight and enhance his bottom line. 

Each workout brought out new storylines for both fighters heading into the fight, which will be broken down right now. 

Manny Pacquiao's Aggression

One thing that has plagued Pacquiao in recent years is a sense of complacency. He's never taken a fight for granted, as evidenced by his efforts against the likes of Timothy Bradley and Chris Algieri, but it's hard to put as much focus into those opponents when you know you're so much better than them.

It turns out all Pacquiao needs to get that fire back is Mayweather on the other side of the ring. He told reporters after Wednesday's workout, as noted by Chris McKenna of The Daily Star, his raw aggressive side has come back:

“What I feel right now is motivation, inspiration and determination," Pacquiao said. "The killer instinct is there, I love it.”

Pacquiao hasn't won a fight by knockout or technical knockout since 2009 in back-to-back fights against Ricky Hatton and Miguel Cotto. 

Adding to Pacquiao's motivation, as well as showing he does have a sense of humor, The Sporting News showed the speed bag he is using to train:

The great debate in boxing for years has been if Mayweather or Pacquiao is the superior fighter. That question will finally get an answer on May 2, but given the history between these two men, just winning may not be enough. 

It certainly doesn't sound like Pacquiao wants to simply have the judges take care of his business. He knows better than most how risky that can be—Timothy Bradley is still able to claim a victory over Pac-Man thanks to the judges—so being aggressive is his best path to victory. 

Floyd Mayweather's Game Plan

Staying on the subject of aggressive, Mayweather's style can be described as many things, but attacking isn't usually one of them. He can trade punches with the best fighters in the world, but his game is predicated on speed and counter-punching. 

In terms of style, Pacquiao may have a lot in common with recent Mayweather opponent Marcos Maidana. In Maidana's first fight with Mayweather, per CompuBox (h/t Josh Slagter of MLive.com) he hit Money more than anyone has:

CompuBox has now tracked 38 of Mayweather's 46 professional victories, and says Marcos Maidana's 221 punches landed Saturday night is the most of any fighter.

...

Maidana threw 858 punches over the 12 rounds, connecting on 26 percent overall. He connected on just 11 percent of his jabs (36 of 318), but 34 percent of his power punches (185 of 540).

That's not a percentage connected that Maidana wants to brag about, but Pacquiao isn't known for his accuracy. He landed 229 of 669 total punches against Algieri, per Ring Magazine, for instance. 

Circling back to what this means for Mayweather, he doesn't need to throw a lot of punches to win a fight because he's almost superhuman with his accuracy. 

In 2012, citing stats from CompuBox, Igor Guryashkin of ESPN found Mayweather is head and shoulders above everyone else with his ability to land punches:

According to Bob Canobbio, owner and founder of CompuBox -- a computerized scoring system that counts every punch a boxer throws and lands -- Mayweather's average connect rate of 46 percent, compiled during his past nine fights (a "prime" designated by CompuBox), ranks as the best among current active fighters.

Guryashkin also provided examples of other top fighters and how their connect rates compare, like Sergio Martinez and Cotto (each at 34 percent "during their primes").

Yet this is a different task for Mayweather than he has faced in a long time because Pacquiao is one of the few fighters capable of matching Money's speed. 

While it would be foolish for Mayweather to change the style that has worked so well for him throughout his career, he can afford to be more aggressive than in the past because Pacquiao has basically said he will unleash a relentless assault once the bell rings. 

What's the Finish?

Based on the odds listed earlier in the article, the overwhelming consensus is that Mayweather vs. Pacquiao is going the distance. It's not a surprise since both fighters have a combined total of one knockout in 16 fights since 2010. 

Pacquiao has said that he wants Mayweather to try going for a knockout since that will play into what he likes to do, according to Boxing Scene:

"If he (goes for a knockout), that's good for me," Pacquiao said. "I like that. We'll see. That's what I want, and that's definitely what the fans want—action."

Mayweather Promotions CEO Leonard Ellerbe said during an appearance on Ring TV that he believes Mayweather's plan is to end this matchup before the 12th round ends, as noted by Andreas Hale of RingTV.com:

"Floyd Mayweather is going to try to take Manny Pacquiao’s head off and you can count on that happening," Ellerbe said. "He’s looking to finish him off and I strongly believe that will happen."

If you were to bet on a knockout happening, it would have to be Mayweather knocking out Pacquiao. Mayweather has never tasted defeat in his career, while Pacquiao was dropped by a vicious right hand to the chin by Juan Manuel Marquez in December 2012. 

Making that knockout even more relevant to this fight is it came because Pacquiao was being too aggressive. He's already made claims about using that aggressive style in this fight, so if he leaves his chin open again, Mayweather can score the KO. 

However, Marquez is a more powerful fighter than Mayweather. Dinamita has 40 career knockouts among his 56 career wins. By comparison, Mayweather has 26 knockouts in his 47 wins. 

Since Mayweather has never shown any evidence to suspect that he will be knocked down, predicting a knockout by Pacquiao is simply trying to go against the grain without real proof it will happen. In sports, anything can happen, but odds don't line up in this case. 

Instead, based on what's happened with both fighters up to this point, highlighted by Pacquiao's acknowledgment that he needs to keep being aggressive, the door is wide open for Mayweather to score a victory from the judges. 

It's not going to be an easy win for Mayweather. Hopefully he and Pacquiao provide fans with an epic battle on par with Rocky vs. Apollo Creed in Rocky and Rocky II. 

Boxing stats via BoxRec.com