UFC on Fox 15: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Predictions

The UFC’s strong start to 2015 has, almost inevitably, lost some of its steam recently. However, this weekend’s UFC on Fox 15 is one of the few upcoming cards to inspire any kind of interest. The event might lack name value, but the fights promise to deliver compelling action.

Saturday night’s main card features Luke Rockhold vs. Lyoto Machida in a potential middleweight title eliminator, Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza taking on short-notice replacement Chris Camozzi, Cub Swanson vs. Max Holloway and Felice Herrig vs. Paige VanZant.

As ever, Bleacher Report MMA is on hand to guide you through the matchups. Read on for the views of Sean Smith, Scott Harris, Riley Kontek, Craig Amos and yours truly, James MacDonald.

Following a disastrous UFC Fight Night 64 for the prediction team, Riley Kontek managed to extend his lead by being the best of a bad bunch. James MacDonald remains in second spot, holding off the third-placed Sean Smith by sheer force of will. Scott Harris is clinging desperately to the fourth spot, narrowly ahead of Craig Amos in last place.

Riley Kontek: 38-18

James MacDonald: 35-21

Sean Smith: 34-22

Scott Harris: 31-25

Craig Amos: 29-27

Riley Kontek

For all of Felice Herrig's faults as a fighter, she is experienced and technical. She has consistently taken on higher levels of competition than VanZant has. The thing that could be hard on people picking Herring is the lack of success The Ultimate Fighter 20 fighters have seen in the UFC thus far. I like VanZant as a prospect, but at this point in her career, Herrig is the better fighter right now.

Herrig, Unanimous decision

Craig Amos

I was beyond impressed with VanZant's first UFC showing. I haven't been quite as impressed with what I've seen out of Herrig (including her time on The Ultimate Fighter). It may be tight for a round, but VanZant will eventually break away and win emphatically.

VanZant, Submission, Rd. 3

Scott Harris

Let's all of us just relax. There's a fight to be fought here, after all. This will come down to VanZant's aggression and Herrig's more deliberate approach. Herrig's strength and cardio will win her the day over three fun rounds.

Herrig, Unanimous decision

Sean Smith

Both Herrig and VanZant have suffered decision losses to Torres, and neither has beaten a currently ranked strawweight. So, they are at similar ability levels, but the younger VanZant appears to be improving much more quickly than Herrig, who has three times as many MMA appearances. It's going to be a close one and should go to the scorecards, but I'll take youth over experience in this situation.

VanZant, Unanimous decision

James MacDonald

VanZant certainly impressed last time out. The youngster has an awful lot of potential but has perhaps been thrust into the spotlight a little too quickly because of her looks. Herrig is no stranger to the notion of trading on one’s sex appeal, but she also has a ton of experience behind her. Moreover, the 30-year-old appears to be improving with age if her performance against Lisa Ellis is anything to go by. It should be competitive, but Herrig will probably eke by with the decision.

Herrig, Unanimous decision

Riley Kontek

This is a hell of a matchup and will likely be the Fight of the Night. Both men love to stand and bang, so expect a kickboxing match with MMA gloves. Holloway has looked strong lately and has probably pushed his stock up the most at 145 pounds outside of Conor McGregor. That said, I like Swanson in this bout based on what I've seen him do against fellow strikers, and Holloway doesn't have the wrestling to expose Swanson.

Swanson, Unanimous decision

Craig Amos

Swanson's hot streak fizzled out when he fought Frankie Edgar, but he remains a top contender at 145 pounds. Holloway is on the precipice of joining him there, but it may take another year or two before he makes that leap.

Swanson, Unanimous decision

Scott Harris

This is a closer fight than some people might think, thanks to Holloway's diverse striking and solid takedown defense. Swanson will still land some heavy leather, though, and dirty it up enough to overpower Holloway going away and nab a close decision.

Swanson, Unanimous decision

Sean Smith

Aside from his knockout loss to Jose Aldo during his WEC days, Swanson has always been held back by his defensive wrestling. Holloway isn't a big threat to score many takedowns, so Swanson matches up well against his opponent at UFC on Fox 15.

Swanson, Unanimous decision

James MacDonald

This should be a terrific fight. Swanson will be eager to make a statement after his poor performance against Frankie Edgar last time out. Expect this one to be contested mostly on the feet. Both men are creative strikers, but Holloway is probably the more traditional of the two. It’s a fairly close fight if it remains standing, but Swanson should have the slight edge.

Swanson, Unanimous decision

Riley Kontek

Let me start off by saying I'm a fan of Chris Camozzi and he's the man for taking this fight...again. Not much analysis here. Camozzi saves this bout, but the ref will have to save Camozzi.

Souza, Submission, Rd. 1

Craig Amos

This fight has already happened, and Souza won easily. If anything, the gap between the two men has only widened since that time. Camozzi deserves credit for taking such a tough fight on short notice, but he isn't likely to win anything besides respect.

Souza, Submission, Rd. 2

Scott Harris

Camozzi is the Bucknell or North Florida of this event. You're happy he made it back to the Big Dance, and no matter what else happens from here on out, he's defied the odds just being here. So there's your feel-good story. Camozzi is tough like an old saddle, but that's not going to stop him from being twisted up like a pretzel by Jacare.

Souza, Submission, Rd. 2

Sean Smith

At UFC on FX 8, Souza ran through Camozzi en route to a submission win. It's hard to envision the rematch playing out much differently. Souza is a huge favorite and deservedly so.

Souza, Submission, Rd. 1

James MacDonald

Poor Chris Camozzi. His first tussle with Jacare was practically PTSD-inducing, so he deserves an awful lot of credit for accepting the rematch, particularly on such short notice. That being said, I can’t imagine this one going an awful lot longer than the first encounter. Look for the Brazilian to get the fight to the floor and secure the submission fairly quickly.

Souza, Submission, Rd. 1

Riley Kontek

This is such a close matchup. I really don't know who to take. On one hand, you have the elusive Machida who has lost bouts in the past for not being aggressive. Then you have Rockhold, who has looked exceptional lately. Rockhold can use his wrestling to help him here, but Machida's takedown defense is stellar. I will take Machida, but I am not hugely confident in this pick.

Machida, Unanimous decision

Craig Amos

On paper, this looks competitive. Both men thrive in all aspects of the sport but maintain a penchant for slinging leather. I've been particularly impressed with Rockhold lately, so I'll side with him in this one.

Rockhold, Unanimous decision

Scott Harris

It just feels like Rockhold's time. I know that doesn't mean much, but it still feels that way. You can't hide from your feelings. You also can't hide from the fact that Rockhold should, eventually, score a takedown or initiate a clinch and outwork the methodical Machida for the win.

Rockhold, Unanimous decision

Sean Smith

While Rockhold's stand-up ability is solid, he hasn't faced an opponent with Machida's unique striking. With some of the more underrated defensive wrestling around, The Dragon does have the takedown defense to force Rockhold into a stand-up bout. This matchup should be tightly contested no matter where it ends up, but Machida should win by shutting down takedowns and picking his shots when standing.

Machida, Unanimous decision

James MacDonald

I’d love to give a confident answer for this one, but I honestly don’t have a clue who will come out on top. Machida and Rockhold seem so evenly matched on paper. The latter is certainly the more aggressive fighter, but aggression often comes at a price against Machida. However, I’m going to give Rockhold a slight edge and bank on his controlled aggression making the difference in the judges’ eyes.

Rockhold, Unanimous decision