Donald Trump bubble burst by Ted Cruz win in Iowa caucus

Texas maverick Ted Cruz dramatically burst the bubble of Donald Trump on Monday in a surprise victory over his Republican rival in the Iowa caucus that supporters hope will herald a rightwing resurgence to match that of Ronald Reagan.

Ignoring the media-friendly bombast of Trump in favor of a purer strain of anti-establishment conservatism, Republicans in the state voted in favor of Cruz, according to initial projections by the Associated Press.

Florida senator Marco Rubio had a strong night, snapping at Trump’s heels and running a close third.

With 99.9% of votes in, Cruz held a 27.7% to 24.3% lead over Trump, with Rubio at 23.1%.

In the Democratic camp, former secretary of state and first lady Hillary Clinton was locked in a virtual tie with Vermont socialist Bernie Sanders with more than 99% of the precincts counted. The Associated Press and multiple outlets said the race was simply too close to call.

In a victory speech in Des Moines, Cruz told a cheering crowd: “God bless the great state of Iowa ... To God be the glory.”

The Texas senator said his victory was a victory for the grassroots and “courageous conservatives” across the state and the country. “Iowa has sent notice that the Republican nominee and the next president of the United States will not be chosen by the media, will not be chosen by the Washington establishment, will not be chosen by the lobbyists, but will be chosen by the most incredible powerful force where all sovereignty resides in our nation: by we the people, the American people.”

He said he had won the most votes ever cast for any Republican caucus winner in Iowa. “Tonight Iowa has proclaimed to the world: morning is coming,” he said. “Whatever Washington says, they cannot keep the people down.” The vote, he said, showed that his supporters were yearning to get back to free market and “Judeo-Christian values”.

“We’re thrilled,” said Cruz spokeswoman Catherine Frazier. “This is what we have been working towards – we spent months building a ground game unparalleled to any campaign and it’s paid off. We’re excited about the momentum we have going into the next states and national organization that will carry us through to the end.”

She praised “how hard Senator Cruz has worked in Iowa” and his “ability to bring conservatives in Iowa on board the campaign”. No one would have considered him a “No 2 pick” for next week’s New Hampshire primary, she added.

Trump congratulated Cruz in a concession speech after the result was called. “On June 16, when we started this journey, I was told by everybody, do not go to Iowa. They said, ‘Don’t do it.’ I said I have to do it.

“And we finished second, and let me tell you something, I’m honored, I’m just honored ... We’re just so happy with the way everything’s worked out.”

He praised Iowa and Iowans, adding: “I think I might come here and buy a farm.”

And he looked ahead to the next two races, saying: “We love New Hampshire and we love South Carolina.”

The mood at his party in western Des Moines went from subdued when it emerged he had been pushed into second place by Cruz to outright downbeat when it became apparent he had almost tied with third-place Rubio.

Behind Cruz and Trump, Rubio dominated over Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and John Kasich, who are now left in a battle for survival.

None of the other establishment figures had expected to make many waves in Iowa, but they barely registered on a dismal night.

Defiant Rubio

A defiant Rubio echoed the words of Barack Obama in 2008 when he took the stage at his caucus night party in Des Moines.

“So this is the moment they said would never happen. For months, they told us we had no chance,” Rubio told a raucous crowd inside a ballroom at the downtown Marriott.

“They told me I needed to wait my turn. They told me we had no chance because my hair wasn’t gray enough and my boots were too high,” he said, referring to a minor media storm about his Cuban heel boots. “But tonight, here in Iowa, the people of this great state have sent a very clear message after seven years of Barack Obama: we are not waiting any longer.”

Rubio made an aggressive push in the final weeks before the Iowa caucus, ramping up his appearances in the state and racking up endorsements from a wide array of faith leaders. He focused his closing argument on electability, arguing that only he could unify a fractured Republican party.

Cruz had inched ahead in recent opinion polls but appeared to have stumbled when Trump raised questions over whether his birth to a US mother in Canada invalidated his right to serve as president.

But despite this distraction and a position against ethanol subsidies that was thought to be unpopular among rural voters in a state where corn is the biggest export, Cruz overcame the setbacks with the help of strong support from evangelical voters and the Republican Tea Party wing.

Trump’s fate hung on whether he could translate the widespread support expressed to pollsters and remarkable turnouts at his rallies into turnout among Republicans taking part in the caucuses.

“I wondered if they would really turn out to vote and it turns out that they weren’t real, and reality started tonight,” said Cruz spokesman Rick Tyler.

The threat of bad winter weather barreling towards the western end of the state Monday evening did not become a factor. Turnout appeared to be high, with reports of some precincts running out of paperwork to register first time caucus-goers. It had been anticipated that high turnout would be good for Trump, but the New York tycoon’s lack of organization on the ground cost him.

By contrast, Cruz had a highly sophisticated ground game that had recruited caucus captains and volunteers across the state and made aggressive use of data capture on Facebook, using detailed psychological profiling techniques to sway voters.

As the night unfolded, Cruz soon opened up a three-point lead, which he was able to sustain. With half of the precincts reporting, he had hit 28.9% to Trump’s 25.2%. Rubio, on 21.1%, was closing in and the rest of the field floundering.

On Monday, shortly before voting began across the state, the senator visited his 99th county since campaigning began – a clean sweep of the sparsely populated Hawkeye state known as the “full Grassley” – named after Chuck Grassley, the senator from that state who pioneered such high-intensity campaigning.

Though fractionally less prone to headline-grabbing outbursts than Trump, Cruz has nonetheless fought one of the most extreme conservative campaigns for many years and offers a stark contrast with the Democratic nominee.

His foreign policy in particular eclipses even that of the New York property magnate in its belligerence, including calls to “carpet bomb” Islamic State forces in Syria until the sand “glowed”.

Cruz has also become unpopular among Republican colleagues in the Senate for a history of obstructionism that saw him play a leading role in a government shutdown, part of a failed bid to force Barack Obama to roll back his healthcare reforms.

Nevertheless, the senator has also been a champion of civil liberties, joining Kentucky colleague Rand Paul in promoting surveillance reform after revelations by National Security Agency whistleblower Edward Snowden.

“Who do you know who will kill the terrorists, defend the constitution and repeal Obamacare?” Cruz boasted to supporters in Hubbard, Iowa, this weekend.

Cruz remains behind Trump in polls in New Hampshire, the next state to vote, in eight days’ time, but has strong support in the largely southern “Super Tuesday” states that mark a potential turning point in the race on 1 March.

With Trump’s once unstoppable momentum slowed in Iowa, attention is now likely to focus on the battle between Cruz and Florida senator Marco Rubio, whose strong third place showing in Iowa puts him in a strong position to do well in New Hampshire next week.