P.G. Sittenfeld
Cincinnati city councilman and U.S. Senate hopeful P.G. Sittenfeld, above, has assembled a professional campaign staff, attracted big-name campaign donors and, according to those close to his team, raised at least $500,000. So he's in no hurry to step aside, even with former Gov. Ted Strickland now in the race as the Democratic frontrunner.
(Al Behrman, The Associated Press)
CLEVELAND, Ohio -- What now, P.G. Sittenfeld?
This week, as Ted Strickland jumped into the U.S. Senate race he had long been linked to, speculation shifted back to the other Democratic candidate. Many assumed that Sittenfeld, a 30-year-old city councilman from Cincinnati, would step aside once Strickland, a 73-year-old former governor, made his intentions clear.
The smart money is on that still happening -- eventually.
But a funny thing happened during the month that Sittenfeld had the field to himself. He assembled a campaign staff, attracted big-name campaign donors and, according to those close to his team, raised at least $500,000. Not bad for a newcomer. Not bad at all.
Encouraged, no doubt, by his fast start, Sittenfeld has caught the fever. The 2016 primary is more than a year away, and he likely sees little reason to bow out before the March 31 deadline for campaign-finance reports. If the senatorial exploration was, as many suspect, more about Sittenfeld setting himself up for a statewide run in 2018, an impressive fundraising quarter would only strengthen his position.
And if Strickland's comeback doesn't yield quick excitement in the form of contributions, perhaps Sittenfeld will make a case to stick around longer.
Given these dynamics, Democrats in Columbus and Washington are eager for Sittenfeld's next move. Few think he can beat Strickland head-to-head, but everyone knows his prolonged presence in the race would force Strickland to spend money he prefers to save for a general election against Republican incumbent Rob Portman.
But would a primary be bad for Democrats?
Let's consider three arguments for and three arguments against.
It would show off the Democratic bench. The party took a beating in last year's statewide elections, leaving little depth for 2016. Sittenfeld arrived ahead of schedule, but he represents a new crop that Democrats hope to harvest.
Say Sittenfeld sticks around for a few months but gets out before the primary filing deadline. Those are months spent raising his name-recognition for 2018. Say he goes through with it and proves competitive. Even if he loses to Strickland, or to Portman in a general election, he will have established himself as next in line.
It would help Strickland get into fighting shape. He hasn't been a candidate since 2010, and though Strickland surrounds himself with top-flight political strategists and communicators, so much has changed since then.
The news cycle churns faster than ever. Republicans have been attacking Strickland for weeks, giving him a taste of what to expect. Even if Sittenfeld keeps it friendly with Strickland, his eagerness to talk college affordability and other policy ideas would force the former governor to engage sooner rather than later.
It would keep the Ohio Democratic Party from seeming heavy-handed. This Senate race will be a key early test for David Pepper, the new state party chairman.
Some unfairly blame his predecessor, Chris Redfern, for clearing the 2014 gubernatorial field for Ed FitzGerald, who turned out to be a terrible candidate. The truth is a little more complicated than that -- and, remember, Strickland himself passed on that race, despite a narrow re-election loss in 2010.
Regardless, a primary between the party's old guard and new could be a healing experience for Ohio Democrats, who have been down in the dumps for years.
It would play into Republican hands. There's a reason why Portman and the Republicans are throwing so much at Strickland so soon. They believe he will win the nomination and be a tough opponent -- and they want to define him now.
If Sittenfeld sticks around, it will be because he thinks he can win the primary. If he thinks he can win, he will be tempted to draw overt contrasts that will force him and Strickland to spend early and allow Republicans to save their money.
Building a bench is great, but Democrats need a win. And a presidential year, when the electorate trends more Democratic, is an opportunity not to be wasted.
It would call attention to Strickland's age. Sittenfeld is playing up his youth. If that's a jab at the 59-year-old Portman, it's also a jab at Strickland.
The longer a fresh face is around, the older Strickland looks by comparison. He says he feels great and is ready to campaign with gusto. But it was a different story three years ago at the Democratic National Convention, where he confessed that his busy schedule had him exhausted by the middle of the week.
Sittenfeld's fundraising skill also could provide some uncomfortable early moments for Strickland. If he is unable to build an early cash advantage, there will be real questions about whether the former governor is yesterday's news. And those are the types of questions the party won't want if Strickland is the nominee.
It wouldn't necessarily be a healing experience. Jennifer Brunner was a rising Democratic star in 2010. Rather than seek a second term as Ohio secretary of state, she ran in the Senate primary against Strickland's lieutenant governor, Lee Fisher. Bad feelings remain on both sides -- and Brunner's statewide star has since dimmed.
In 2006, Iraq war veteran Paul Hackett was a top early Senate prospect but said party leaders urged him to step aside to clear a path for Sherrod Brown. Brown of course won and stands today as the party's only tangible statewide success. But Hackett, for whom there were such high hopes, hasn't been heard from since.
Sittenfeld has spent much of the last year traveling the state, building relationships that can help elevate him as he charts his political future. He's young and ambitious and will have other chances. Party elders will offer this advice delicately, to avoid the appearance that they are treating him like a Brunner or a Hackett.
It's a tough decision for a young man in a hurry.
For now, Sittenfeld is in no rush to make it.