Ted Strickland running for Senate?
Former Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland rallies with U.S. Rep. Joyce Beatty last summer in Columbus during a pitch to Democratic National Committee convention planners. Strickland is weighing a bid for U.S. Senate in 2016.
(Jackie Borchardt, Northeast Ohio Media Group)
The Big Republican Noise Machine wants it both ways -- big surprise, that -- when it comes to a possible Rob Portman-Ted Strickland matchup.
Portman, a suburban Cincinnati Republican, is serving his first term in the U.S. Senate. He's running for re-election in 2016. Democratic Cincinnati City Council member P.G. Sittenfeld (full name: Alexander Paul George Sittenfeld) is challenging Portman.
Democrat Strickland, governor from 2007 through 2010, when Republican John Kasich unseated him, also may challenge Portman. All else equal, Strickland's candidacy would trigger a Sittenfeld-Strickland Democratic primary. Strickland is expected to announce his plans by February's end.
Based on flak fired at Strickland by Ohio Republicans, it appears the GOP has contradictory perspectives on a Strickland run.
Perspective One: Strickland was an inept governor who drove Ohio into a ditch and no longer enthuses one-time supporters. Translation: The idea that Strickland could oust Portman is a joke.
Perspective Two: Strickland is a dangerous customer who, according to a recent Republican communique, "will raise MILLIONS for his Senate campaign with the help of his liberal, job-killing friends." (Evidently, Strickland still has some supporters.) If that's not scary enough, consider this frightful revelation by GOP State Chairman Matt Borges: "There is one more important note about Ted. ... He's besties with Hillary Clinton."
One take on these paradoxical Republican claims is that they're standard strategy in the playbook of today's political hucksters ("consultants"): Carpet-bomb a possible opponent with negative publicity.
In the run-up to 2010's Strickland-Kasich contest, for example, Democrats endlessly denounced Kasich's ties to Lehman Brothers (that is, "Wall Street"). Voters didn't care. They elected Kasich and retired Strickland. Now, according to a Quinnipiac Poll released Feb. 10, "Ohio voters approve 55-30 percent of the job Gov. Kasich is doing."
Another possible take is that Republicans may in fact think Portman really could be vulnerable to a challenge by Strickland. That same Quinnipiac Poll reported that "Ohio voters approve 40-21 percent of the job U.S. Sen. Rob Portman is doing and say 37-28 percent that he deserves re-election in 2016." Neither of those findings is especially promising for Portman, given the rule of thumb that approval ratings of less than 50 percent indicate weaknesses in incumbents. But polls are just that.
And other factors favor Portman. The first is that, with few exceptions, Ohioans tend to give their U.S. senators, regardless of party, two full terms. Another angle is age. When Ohioans vote in 2016, Portman will be just shy of 61; Strickland will have turned 75.
True, if Democrats nominate Hillary Clinton for president, her coattails could help Strickland into the U.S. Senate. But Ohio, having voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, may be due to swing back Republicans' way in 2016, boosting Portman, if the Republican National Convention nominates a non-kook presidential ticket, such as one led by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.
A twist of the Rubik's Cube: If Bush made Portman his running mate, Ohio law would allow Portman to run on Ohio's 2016 ballot both as a candidate for re-election to the Senate and for vice president. If Portman won both offices, and passed up the Senate, Kasich can appoint a replacement senator. Hypothetical prospect: U.S. Rep. Patrick Tiberi, a suburban Columbus Republican who succeeded Kasich in Congress.
Come what may in 2016, Appalachian Democrat Strickland, if he challenges Portman's re-election as senator, might draw votes in regions Portman backers otherwise think safe for Portman. That's why a Portman-Strickland race, if it happens, could be a nail-biter -- for both parties.
Thomas Suddes, a member of the editorial board, writes from Athens.
To reach Thomas Suddes: tsuddes@gmail.com, 216-999-4689